Apple’s 2026 Prime Day deals are live — but not the discounts you remember. The headline isn’t savings. It’s sticker shock, recalibrated. Macs and iPads cost more before Amazon’s sale even starts. And that changes everything about what ‘a good deal’ means this year.  The MacBook Air M5 starts at $1,150 in U.S. Prime Day listings, up from sub-$800 lows last year. The MacBook Pro hasn’t dipped below $1,800. IPad pricing tells the same story: the A16 iPad, launched March 2025, now starts at $399, $120 above its first-Prime-Day low of $279. The iPad Air. Updated in March, is hovering near $649, $130 higher than its previous all-time low.  These aren’t temporary spikes. They’re baked in. Apple raised Mac and iPad prices across the board in June, citing rising memory and storage costs. Then added another $100–$500 hike on all Macs in the months after the March M5 refresh. Even the entry-level MacBook Neo got a $100 bump.  AirPods are the exception. AirPods 5 launched at $129 with ANC. A $50 effective cut versus the $179 AirPods 4. They’ve already hit $99 in past deals and are expected to dip under $100 again. AirPods Pro 3 ($249 MSRP) have been seen as low as $179. That price could reappear. AirPods Max 2 dropped to $399 during last Prime Day, a pattern likely to repeat.  Apple Watch is stable. Series 12 and Ultra 4 launched just weeks ago at unchanged starting prices: $399 for the 42mm Series 12, $419 for the 46mm. No major discounts yet. But $25–$50 off is possible. The older SE 3 and Series 11 models are scarce. Clearance deals are thin.  IPhones? Not happening on Amazon U.S. No new iPhone 18 units. Just refurbished iPhone 17 Pro stock. Amazon UK, however, is carrying new iPhone 17 models, though the source cuts off mid-sentence there, offering no further detail.  Mac mini and Mac Studio got hit hardest by the September refresh: base Mac mini now $899 (up $300), Mac Studio $2,499 (up $500). IMac remains M4-powered, but its floor has risen to $1,450. Up from sub-$1,100 sale prices in prior years.  Bottom line: Prime Day 2026 is still Apple’s biggest annual discount event, but it’s no longer a race to the bottom. It’s a negotiation with inflation. If you need a Mac or iPad now, Prime Day is your best shot. But don’t expect last year’s bargains. Those are gone. Amazon U.S. Prime Day begins Thursday morning.