Apple's iPhone Duo has been shipping for not even a week, and the spreadsheet jockeys are already recalculating its market share for next year.
Taiwanese research firm TrendForce published a fresh forecast on October 28th arguing that the Duo will capture 29.8 percent of the global foldable smartphone market in 2027. That's up from the firm's earlier call, made the day after Apple unveiled the device last month, that the Duo would grab 24.8 percent of the segment by the end of 2026 on roughly 5 million units shipped.
To be clear, this is one analyst firm's projection, not a sales figure Apple has confirmed. TrendForce builds these numbers from supply-chain checks and historical shipment patterns, and firms in this business revise their guesses constantly. Early demand for the Duo appears to have been strong enough that TrendForce felt comfortable bumping its 2027 number upward rather than walking it back.
The broader foldable market isn't doing much growing on its own. TrendForce pegs 2026 growth at just 0.5 percent, with shipments from Android foldable makers actually falling more than 20 percent year over year. The firm expects the category to pick back up in 2027, hitting 23.5 million units worldwide, a 16.3 percent jump, and credits Apple's arrival as part of what gets it there.
Why Apple specifically. TrendForce points to the company's ability to tie its chips, its operating system and its developer ecosystem together in one package, something no Android phone maker can fully replicate because none of them also write the OS. As app compatibility and hinge durability improve across the category, the firm expects competition to shift away from who can build the most interesting hinge and toward who can actually make a folding screen useful for getting things done.
If the forecast holds, the pecking order for 2027 looks like this. Samsung stays on top but slips, from 35.1 percent of the market in 2026 down to 31.9 percent next year. Apple's Duo lands in second at 29.8 percent, a tier it wouldn't have existed in before this year. Huawei drops from 24.8 percent to 21.3 percent, pushed down the board by a phone that's barely been on shelves a week.
None of this is locked in. TrendForce's own numbers moved meaningfully in the space of a single month, and a forecast for a device still in its first week of retail availability is inherently a bet. The real test comes once the launch bump fades and buyers start comparing the Duo against whatever Samsung and Huawei have ready for next year's Galaxy Unpacked and Mate cycles. Apple will report actual sales on its next earnings call, which is when these projections get checked against reality.
MDFiled by The Mobile Desk
Phones from leak to launch to price cut: what was announced, what it costs where, and when it goes on sale. Indian launches and prices included, not appended.
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